新兴市场企业国际化、组织冗余与创新绩效

国际化是新兴市场企业克服后发劣势、实现创新追赶的重要战略选择。基于组织学习理论,以中国具有国际扩张行为的高技术上市企业为研究样本,探索了新兴市场企业国际化水平对创新绩效的影响以及组织冗余的调节效应。结果表明:(1)新兴市场企业国际化广度对创新绩效具有正向影响,国际化深度对创新绩效具有正向影响;(2)沉淀性冗余在国际化广度与创新绩效之间具有负向调节效应,在国际化深度与创新绩效之间具有负向调节效应;(3)非沉淀性冗余在国际化广度与创新绩效之间具有正向调节效应,在国际化深度与创新绩效之间具有正向调节效应。最后,基于研究结论对新兴市场企业国际化和创新管理提出研究启示。     

创新开展新时期科技名词规范化工作,努力发挥支撑服务作用

科技名词规范化工作具有深厚的历史基础和现实需要,是支撑科技创新和经济社会发展的一项基础性系统工程。当前,中国特色社会主义进入新时代,我们要深刻领会“新时代”的丰富内涵,深化认识科技名词规范化工作的特殊意义,创新开展各项工作,更好肩负起新时代赋予的历史使命。     

欧洲颠覆性太空技术搜寻方法体系研究

 欧洲颠覆性太空技术搜寻计划因其系统化的优势而受到关注。研究了欧洲颠覆性太空技术搜寻初选、评价环节，分析了颠覆性太空技术的理论基础、基于STEP框架的评价标准和评价方法，介绍了颠覆性太空技术的技术路线图。通过对欧洲颠覆性太空技术方法体系在理论、方法、实施3个层面经验的总结，得出推动中国颠覆性技术创新的启示，即重视技术应用场景分析，建立专家履历信息平台，构建多源信息支撑体系，加强技术发展规划管理等。     

Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

“纽约硅谷”会攀上世界科技产业之巅吗？——兼议中国企业登临世界科技产业之巅的思考

与以往的创业公司侧重金融、证券、商业创新不同．纽约现在的创业公司也侧重发展高科技．是一种把纽约各个行业都高科技化的新创业。现在．纽约积极发展高科技．是“想拿回它原来不需要的东西”。我国一些城市的新兴公司普遍缺乏独立创新．而主要是离职人员复制、抄袭前雇主的商业模式。中国一些创业公司生态系统对新知识、新技术的推进能力较弱．尚未形成欧美式的企业独立创新模式．在未来较长一段时期内．司能较难形成国际竞争力。     

Multiscale Modeling of Emerging Electronics:from Quantum Mechanical Simulation of Transistors to Spice Modeling of Integrated Circuits

正We have developed a multiscale method to model emerging electronic devices.It features a combination of first-principles calculation,semi-classical semiconductor device simulation,compact model generation and circuit simulation.We have applied the method to model a new type of transistors and their circuits:junctionless fieldeffect transistor.The transfer characteristics of junctionless field-effect transistors are simulated by a recently devel-     

论微信时代的知识产权保护

信息时代碎片化的传播方式造成了微信中的知识产权保护困境，以微信为代表的新兴自媒体对传统的保护模式提出了挑战。微信平台信息传播快、溯源难、自主性强、监控难的特性是导致知识产权保护困境的重要原因。要打破“微阅读”“微营销”知识产权保护的困境，需要行业自身、技术方、管理者等不同角色分工配合。     

知识经济时代下的中国机械制造业

通过对知识经济时代的特点、我国机械制造业现状的分析，说明只有努力发展先进制造技术，才能使我国机械制造业摆脱困境。     

知识经济时代下的中国机械制造业

通过对知识经济时代的特点、我国机械制造业现状的分析，说明只有努力发展先进制造技术，才能使我国机械制造业摆脱困境。